000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE DEC 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 
FUNNELING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE RESULTANT SEAS ARE NOW UP TO 8 FT. 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE 
NEXT 6 HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-16 FT 
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. ALSO...A PLUME OF NE SWELL AT 8-11 FT 
WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 08N86W TO 06N104W.  
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N104W TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN 
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 10N140W TO 05N140W TO 05N133W TO 
11N121W TO 13N130W TO 10N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG 1043 
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING 
OVER NW MAINLAND MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER  
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N AS CAPTURED BY RECENT ASCAT 
PASSES. AN ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 8-11 FT SEAS...AND A RARE SHIP 
OBSERVATION REPORTED SEAS TO 10 FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL 
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS BY 18 HOURS.

1017 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N126W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS FROM THE LOW 
THROUGH 23N124W TO 19N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
LOW AND 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST WATERS 
NEAR 43N130W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 9-12 FT 
SEAS. A SURROUNDING AREA OF MIXED NE AND NW SWELL TO 8-10 FT 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 19N AND W-NW OF THE 
FRONT. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/ 
SUBSIDING BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING POKING INTO THE WESTERN WATERS TO THE SW-W 
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 14N W 
OF 134W...ALONG WITH 9-12 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. AN 
AREA OF 8-11 FT SEAS SURROUNDS THE TRADES ELSEWHERE S OF 19N W 
OF A LINE FROM 19N128W TO 10N123W TO 00N135W. THE AREA OF TRADES 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS DECAYING TO 
BARELY 8 FT BY THEN AS WELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW BY FRI AS TRADE 
WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

$$
LEWITSKY