000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101532 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE DEC 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40-45 KT TONIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA RESULTING FROM THE COOL DENSE AIR WILL ALLOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER CONDITIONS REACHING JUST BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE PERSISTENT GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 110W BY LATE THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N90W TO 06N104W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N104W TO 08N123W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG 1043-44 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF 25N AND WINDS OF 15- 25 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. OF NOTE...BETWEEN NOVEMBER AND MAY THE PREVAILING WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ARE NW. MODERATE NW GALES... LASTING 2 OR 3 DAYS ARE FREQUENT IN THE UPPER PART OF THE GULF DURING DECEMBER...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY. THE FIRST OF THIS TYPE OF EVENT HAS JUST OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OF 1017 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N125W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH WATERS THROUGH 22N130W TO 21N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 44N132W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF LOW PRES AND W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT DECREASING THROUGH WED. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE S WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 23N IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 132W AND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONG TRADES ARE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ AND MAINTAINING THE AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 123W AND 138W AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRADES DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY WED MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW BY FRI AS TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ GR