000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE DEC 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG 
1043-44 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND 
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS A 
RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER 
THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TODAY. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE. 
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...40-45 KT TONIGHT. 
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA RESULTING FROM THE COOL 
DENSE AIR WILL ALLOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER CONDITIONS 
REACHING JUST BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE 
PERSISTENT GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A PLUME OF SHORT 
PERIOD NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 110W 
BY LATE THURSDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N98W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
THROUGH 08N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

LOW PRESSURE OF 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA 
NEAR 28N125W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE AREA 
FROM THROUGH 24N130W TO 30N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW AND 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 44N132W IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH 
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST 
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT 
DECREASING THROUGH WED. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 23N IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 132W AND FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 
125W AND 132W. THE STRONG TRADES ARE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE INTO 
THE ITCZ AND MAINTAINING THE AREA OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE AREAL 
COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH TRADES DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY WED EVENING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONGER GAP FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 

$$
COBB