000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON DEC 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE...STRONG RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. A GALE WARNING IS EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE COOL DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DELIVER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE NIGHT. THE GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO START TUE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 9 FT BY LATE TUE...REACHING AS HIGH AS 14-15 FT WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE GALES. THE PERSISTENT GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 105W BY LATE THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 08N100W TO 08N110W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N110W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE PULSING TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. BRIEF PULSES TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHIP CALLSIGN MCZN2 LOCATED NEAR 11N88W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE N WATERS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRES NEAR 32N126W TO 28N130W TO 29N140W. THE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT...REACHING A POSITION NEAR 29N125W WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N130W TO 28N140W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE NW WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF FRONT TO ABOUT 135W WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE LOW AND THE FRONT BOTH ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATED BY 36-48 HOURS. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS WELL...BUT RELATED NW SWELL IN EXCESS 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FARTHER SOUTH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED TRADE WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 08N TO 20N W OF 120W. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS AIDING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA DISSIPATES. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ROUGHLY FROM 02N TO 20N W OF 130W EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH. $$ GR