000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON DEC 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE COOL DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DELIVER WINDS IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TUESDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW MUCH 
OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE STARTING 
TUESDAY EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
WILL ALLOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONDITIONS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 
QUICKLY TO 8 FT BY LATE TUE AFTER THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE 
GALES...REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK. THE PERSISTENT GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A PLUME OF 
SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 
105W BY LATE THURSDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 08N110W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM 08N110W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILDING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL REACH 
NEAR GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL SPREAD 
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE...BUT 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE PULSING TO 25 KT EARLY THIS 
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. BRIEF PULSES TO 20 KT 
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK...PARTICULARLY 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

W OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING INTO 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN SW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 
32N130W. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING S OF 
30N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W...INTO A DISSIPATING 1027 MB HIGH PRES 
AREA CENTERED NEAR 27N132W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN CUT OFF 
UPPER LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF TROUGH OFF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE...ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL AND 
DISSIPATE. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH 
AS WELL...BUT RELATED NW SWELL IN EXCESS 8 FT WILL PERSIST IN 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W THROUGH LATE TUE.

THE SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 27N IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FARTHER SOUTH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED TRADE 
WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 09N TO 20N W OF 120W. THE TRADE 
WIND CONVERGENCE IS AIDING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHT INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA DISSIPATES. NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 20N ALONG 
ROUGHLY 137W...ROUGHLY VERIFYING WAVEWATCH III WAVE MODEL 
INITIALIZATIONS. WAVEWATCH ECWAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING LONGER 
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL IN THE 
AREA OF THESE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINTAINING SEAS OF 
8 TO 10 FT FROM 03N TO 19N W OF 13OW EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN