000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON DEC 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N97W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 08N121W TO 
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 30 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N135W WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N107W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE BY MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE N WATERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW SET OF 
NW SWELLS BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT A SHRINKING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH TUE.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE AIR MASS N OF AREA IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS MODIFIED AND WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. RELATIVELY BENIGN 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH TUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE GAP BREEZES PEAKING 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
LATE TUE. THE COMBINATION OF THE DENSER AIR FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE GAP WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NE 
MEXICO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING 
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. WINDS MAY REACH NEAR STORM FORCE BY 
LATE THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG GRADIENT 
FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE 
BY MON EVENING. THE NW WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE 
GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SEAS REACHING 8-9 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING 
BELOW 25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. 

$$
AL