000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN DEC 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL FROM 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS 
MORNING...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS AT 04 UTC 
INDICATED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN 
THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GALES...SEAS WITHIN THE PLUME HAVE LIKELY 
DEVELOPED AS HIGH AS 11 FT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST. THE 
STRONG FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE 
AIRMASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TODAY AS WELL. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM LATE 
TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE GAP BREEZES AT 
THEIR HIGHEST DURING MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE. THE COMBINATION OF 
THE DENSER AIR FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP WITH STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NE MEXICO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER 
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING 
LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS MAY REACH STRONG GALE 
BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT BY LATE THU. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 06N92W TO 
06N108W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N131W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 
12N TO 20N W OF 120W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL 
MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 20N E OF 130W MONDAY...WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRES EARLY 
IN THE WEEK...AND ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE TO 
DIMINISH INTO TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG GRADIENT 
FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REACHING NEAR GALE BY MON 
EVENING. THE NW WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SEAS REACHING 8-9 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT...PRIMARILY IN 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN