000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT DEC 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 06N93W TO 05N105W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 07N110W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
122W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE DENSE 
AIR WILL FUNNEL SOUTH THROUGH THE NARROW CHIVELA PASS IN THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY...DELIVERING GALE FORCE WINDS 
TO ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE 
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ACCORDINGLY STARTING LATE TODAY AND 
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE 
COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES 
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE 
TUE...AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED...WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...GAP WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO 25 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PRIMARILY IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. 
FARTHER SOUTH...MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
GENERALLY FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 90W.

W OF 110W...1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N132W IS BUILDING AND 
SHIFTING SE TO 28N130W...IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT 
IS MOVING THROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE STRONGER 
HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY FROM 
10N TO 20N W OF 120W...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THE PERSISTENT TRADE 
WINDS ARE SUPPORTING SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL IN THIS AREA AS 
WELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NE OF THE 
AREA TONIGHT. MWW3 GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL 
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT MOVING INTO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W  
SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD N OF THE 
AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS 
WILL SET UP A STRONG GRADIENT FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THE 
STRONG NW WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF THROUGH 
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN