000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT DEC 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N86W TO 06N93W TO 
05.5N102W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ 
WHICH EXTENDS TO 10N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 
130W AND 138W AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 
10 FT OVER THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. 
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT WHERE IT WILL 
STALL AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT. DENSE COLD 
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT 
MORNING...AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON. WITH THE 
ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL APPROACH...AND MAY EVEN 
REACH...MINIMAL GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL VEER OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BY SUN NIGHT AND IN TURN WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT. LOOKING AHEAD...A 
STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLE BY EARLY WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
AL