000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI DEC 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05.5N97W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
09N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED N OF 05N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 18N TO 22N W OF 130W 
AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WITH SEAS REACHING 10 
FT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 
SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. 
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT WHERE IT WILL STALL AS 
THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT. DENSE COLD AIR BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT MORNING AND 
REACH NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON. WITH THE PUSH BEHIND THE 
FRONT DIMINISHING WHILE THE FRONT STALLS...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
A BRIEF EVENT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. 
HOWEVER...THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL 
ALLOW WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN 
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT SUN EVENING. LOOKING 
AHEAD...A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
AL