000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI DEC 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N92W TO 06N100W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 10N113W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N137W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE RESULTING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 125W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT 
CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE WESTERN PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY 
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST 
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS 
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE 
FRONT LIFTS OUT. DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THE PUSH BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
BE A BRIEF EVENT WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 
GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT SUN AFTERNOON. 
 
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONGER GAP WIND 
EVENT IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY 
WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.

$$
AL