000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU DEC 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N90W TO 06N100W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 10N113W TO 10N131W TO BEYOND 09N140W. THERE WAS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
41N138W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N112W. THE RESULTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF 
20N AND W OF 125W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO 
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES AND SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST 
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS 
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE 
FRONT LIFTS OUT. DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THE PUSH BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
BE A BRIEF EVENT WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE...AND DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. 

$$
AL