000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051711
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU DEC 5 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N90W TO 07N102W. A 
DISCONTINUOUS ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 10N121W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 09N129W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA SW 30N127W 
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN NEW 
MEXICO NEAR 33N108W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 23N125W...WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE TROUGH 
WILL MOVE W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI WHILE THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. 
 
LARGE ELONGATED N-S RIDGE CENTERED AT 45N138W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD 
TO NEAR 20N AND DOMINATES NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN THE HIGH WILL 
SHIFT S TO AROUND 35N135W AS A CENTRAL PACIFIC LOW PRES SYSTEM 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH 140W THROUGH SAT. EXPECT THE 
HIGH TO SETTLE NEAR 30N 132W SAT THROUGH MON...AND EFFECTIVELY 
BLOCK WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM REACHING SOUTH OF 30N THIS WEEKEND. 
HOWEVER THE BUILDING HIGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT S OF 
20N-25N AND PRODUCE A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 
10-12 FT W OF 125W BETWEEN 10N-20N. 

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MINOR GAP WIND EVENT WITH WINDS TO 20-25 KT 
IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SAT NIGHT AND SUN...BUT NEXT GALE 
FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS STILL SEVERAL 
DAYS AWAY...MOST LIKELY TUE NIGHT AND WED NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY HAVE SLIGHT SPILL-OVER 
EFFECT IN CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECTS TO DOMINATE 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT AT 
TIMES IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6-7 FT.

$$
MUNDELL