000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC THU DEC 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W TO 09N96W TO 09N99W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 11N118W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS FOUND N OF THE 
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1036 MB CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
AREA IS PRODUCING A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W. THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA 
BUILDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSER 
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ AND W OF 130W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. OTHERWISE... 
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT OCCURRENCE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY AND 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE 
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT 
LIFTS OUT. DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SINCE THE PUSH BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS...WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

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AL