000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042117
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED DEC 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08.5N94W TO 07N97W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO 10.5N119W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS FOUND N OF 
THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB CENTERED WELL N OF 
THE AREA IS PRODUCING A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W. THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA BUILDS SOUTHWARD 
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
9 FT. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT OCCURRENCE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY AND 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE 
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT 
LIFTS OUT. DENSER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SINCE THE PUSH BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT STALLS...WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH 20-25 KT 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY SUN 
AFTERNOON. 

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AL