000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N100W TO 08N115W TO 
06N124W. ITCZ FROM 06N124W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 
21N133W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 25N 
TO 28N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE 
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS 
SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT IS 
FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE 
TROUGH DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 
RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF 
AREA BRINGING AGAIN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE N 
WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 21N W OF 130W IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
 
THE LOW PRES THAT WAS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NO 
LONGER IDENTIFIABLE BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. A TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP AND EXTENDS FROM 12N113W 
TO 07N115W. E TO SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW FORECAST THRESHOLD AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
MOVE WESTWARD. 

MEANWHILE...THE GAP WIND REGIONS REMAIN QUIET WITH MAINLY LIGHT 
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALONG WITH 
1-3 FT SEAS.

$$
GR