000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THEN TURNS NW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
06N98W...THEN TURNS W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW 
AT 08N110W CONTINUING W TO 09N123W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.  
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 13N127W... 
AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 05N78W TO 
08N85W TO 06N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED N OF THE EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 08N110W...WITHIN 30 NM 
OF LINE FROM 08.5N109W TO 09N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N129W TO 08N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 22N134W  
AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
CURRENTLY OBSERVED WELL NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 150 NM OF 
26N130W. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA WITH THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CENTER...WITH SEAS OF 
9-11 FT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
NE-E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT NW OF A DISSIPATING CENTER
NEAR 21N134W LATE TUE...WITH THE LOW COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 7-11 FT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 25-32N W OF 118W BY LATE THU
AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N121W TO 21N117W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 30
NM OF 13.5N119W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
THROUGH SAT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A NORTHERLY SURGE TO 15-20 
KT LATE SAT NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED 
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL NE 15-20 KT 
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BEGIN AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WILL DIMINISH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF EARLY TUE...GRADUALLY BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON WED
AND THU WITH SEAS ONLY EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 5 FT IN
EXPOSED GULF WATERS N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
 
$$
NELSON