000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 22N131W  
AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1012 MB WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM OVER ITS N QUADRANT. A SURFACE 
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 36N135W...WITH THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS OF 
25-35 KT WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE... 
WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT. THIS GALE AREA IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE 
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN WITHIN A FEW HOURS WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY 
THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX LATE TONIGHT INTO 
TUE WITH NE-E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT ONLY WITHIN 480 NM 
OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF A 1012 MB LOW AT 21N134W. THE LOW SHOULD 
DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WED...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
NE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT 
WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 7-11 FT 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 25-32N W OF 118W 
BY LATE THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 06N77W 
TO ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA...TURNING W ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA 
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA AT 10N84W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
06N102W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12N121W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.  
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 13N127W... 
AND EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 09N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF 06N79W... 
NOTED JUST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 06.5N89W... 
AND OBSERVED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 07.5N108W TO 12N121W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
OVER...AND TO THE S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 10N130W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N122W TO 24N118W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING S OF 18N WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
THROUGH SAT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A NORTHERLY SURGE TO 15-20 
KT LATE SAT NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED 
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL NE 15-20 KT 
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BEGIN AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WILL DIMINISH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF EARLY TUE...GRADUALLY BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON WED
AND THU WITH SEAS ONLY EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 5 FT IN
EXPOSED GULF WATERS N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
 
$$
NELSON