000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N131W...WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT AND 300 
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. NEAR-
GALE-FORCE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM 24N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 131W AND 138W. THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA OF THE FASTER 
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET. OTHER 
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 131W DURING THE 48 
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 06N77W 
TO 08N85W TO 05N96W TO 08N110W TO 14N123W...BEYOND 08N140W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE 
WEST OF 129W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
03N TO 06N TO THE EAST OF 81W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 
94W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 21N132W...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE 
LAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 27N130W...TO THE 
CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 16N135W AND 10N138W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 120W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N123W 20N127W 9N140W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N131W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N117W 18N120W 13N123W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N 
TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W...AND FROM 26N TO 
31N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM TO 
300 NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST-TO-EAST OF THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER. 
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 114W AND 
130W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N107. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF 06N TO THE EAST OF 120W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS 
TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
21N132W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE ONLY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. HIGH 
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CUTS OFF THE SOURCE OF FUNNELING 
WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS.  

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N DIMINISH BY 
TONIGHT TO A MODERATE BREEZE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO  
APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BE FROM 
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. 

$$
MT