000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 06N77W 
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA 
RICA AT 09N84W...THEN TURNS SW TO 05N95W...THEN NW TO 06N115W 
WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 115-125W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS DETECT THE 
MONSOON TROUGH REFORMS FROM 20N117W TO AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT 14N126W AND CONTINUES SW TO 11N131W 
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE 
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 08N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE  
EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N90W AND 08N105W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 17N121W TO 12N124W TO 06N137W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY 
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 17N117W TO 22N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
14N125W TO 25N129W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A 1010 
MB SURFACE LOW WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N129W. 
THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS AT 20-30 KT ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 22N W OF 125W....WITH LONG PERIOD NW 
AND SE SWELL MIXING WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W 
AND STALL NEAR 21N132W ON MON...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINNING 
TO RELAX TO THE NW OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 
THROUGH WED WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY LATE EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 20-30
KT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W WITH
ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDED TO 7-10 FT. ONE LAST NORTHERLY SURGE OF
15-20 KT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON.
THEREAFTER...WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE FRI.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING 
THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 11N86W TO 09N90W...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE NE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 
ONLY 15-20 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 15-20 KT EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE THU 
NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS BETWEEN 25-28N WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT TO 
10-15 KT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE GULF ON MON NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ONLY TO
A MAXIMUM OF 4 FT IN EXPOSED GULF WATERS N OF 30N BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 
 
$$
NELSON