000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011557
TWDEP 

AXPZ20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W...AND SEA 
HEIGHTS REACH 15 FEET. NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 10N101W...AND 
SEA HEIGHTS REACH 13 FEET. SWELLS THAT ARE REACHING 10 FEET THAT 
ARE BEING PRODUCED BY THE WINDS OF THIS EVENT EXTEND TO 115W. 
THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT 
LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AS WINDS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND 
THE GAP WIND EVENT CEASES TO EXIST. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 06N77W 
TO 06N80W TO 07N86W TO 05N92W TO 06N96W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
06N96W TO 09N105W TO 13N122W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 102W AND 
107W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 134W AND 135W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 
133W AND 135W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N123W TO 29N126W 
TO 27N128W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
23N129W...TO 19N130W AND 11N134W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH 
OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 120W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N120W 
22N125W 15N127W 10N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 124W/125W 
FROM 11N TO 27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 121W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N106W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE 
EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO 
THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING 
AROUND THE 23N129W CYCLONIC CENTER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 127W. A MEAN 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 4N119W.
 
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
NEAR 20N131W BY 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. NEAR-GALE-FORCE NORTHEASTERLY 
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 14 FEET ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH 
OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 131W. A LARGE AREA OF MERGING SWELLS... 
NORTHEASTERLY...NORTHWESTERLY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY...IS HELPING 
TO KEEP THE SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF 115W. 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN THE 
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN 
WIND STRENGTH. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN 
8 FEET.

THE GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH LATE ON SUNDAY...TO A MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS 
LOWER THAN 8 FEET. 
 
$$
MT