000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND CURRENTLY
HOLD AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14N95W WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT.  NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 10N101W WITH SEAS
TO 13 FT.  SWELLS UP TO 10 FT PRODUCED BY EVENT WINDS EXTEND TO
115W.  GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TILL EARLY
SUN AS WINDS OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO VEER FROM NE TO SE AND 
SHUTS OFF SOURCE OF GAP WINDS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W TO 06N95W THEN ITCZ
TO 06N110W TO 14N124W TO 13N127W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM OF N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
TWO MAIN FEATURES OVER E PAC.  FIRST IS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
32N124W TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 24N128W THEN CONTINUE TO S TO
10N131W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF TROUGH/CYCLONE.  
SECOND FEATURE IS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT
16N105W.  LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...MAINLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
FROM ITCZ IS TRAPPED BETWEEN FEATURES AND IS CHANNELED N-NE UNTO
NORTHERN THIRD OF MEXICO AND TEXAS.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY E
OF ANTICYCLONE.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 11N132W EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED TROUGH MEANDERS
NE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH LARGE RIDGE N OF BASIN.  NEAR 
GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 14 FT OBSERVED IN LARGE REGION
N OF 14N W OF 128W.  ELSEWHERE LARGE AREA OF MERGING NE...NW AND
SE SWELLS KEEP SEAS UP TO 10 FT W OF 115W. 

NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG TROUGH TODAY AND MON MAINTAINING
TIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH TUE N OF 20N W OF 128W WITH STRONG NE
WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG NW BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF 
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME A MODERATE NW BREEZE
THROUGH MID WEEK.  WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN GULF 
TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND STRENGTH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NE WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN
TO A MODERATE BREEZE WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT.   
 
$$
WALLY BARNES