000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT NOV 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W...WITH SEAS OF 10-16 FT WITHIN THIS GALE AREA. THE GALE AREA IS SURROUNDED BY N-NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 11N100W...WITH SEAS OF 10- 15 KT. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL... RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 05-15N BETWEEN 92-115W. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT'S MAXIMUM DRAINAGE...THEN DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN WITH ONE LAST SURGE TO 25 KT EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE ON MON WITH N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE MON...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM TUE THROUGH LATE FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 07N77W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF PANAMA TO 06N90W...THEN TURNS NW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN WIGGLES W TO 06N102W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ANALYZED AT 10N123W AND 12N131W...THEN THE ITCZ TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW PRESSURE AT 10N123W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 12N131W. A TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE EMBEDDED ITCZ LOW AT 12N131W TO NEAR 26N122W AND IS SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17-26N BETWEEN 117-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS OBSERVED FROM 07- 17N BETWEEN 111-125W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF 05N81W. ...DISCUSSION... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE EMBEDDED ITCZ LOW PRESSURE AT 12N131W TO NEAR 26N122W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 20N124W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS AT 20- 25 KT/SEAS 7-10 FT INITIALLY WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION GENERALLY TO THE W OF 129W...WITH SEAS 9-13 FT. LONG PERIOD NW AND SE SWELL IS MIXING WITH NEW NE SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW TO NEAR 21N126W ON SUN WITH THE AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS EXPANDING OUT TO 540 NM OVER THE ENTIRE NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON SUN NIGHT SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 660 NM OVER THE NW AND WITHIN 600 NM OVER THE E QUADRANTS OF LOW AS SEAS BUILD TO 9-13 FT. THE LOW WILL STALL NEAR 21N132W ON MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED WITH THE NE FLOW DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BY LATE WED. GAP WINDS...CURRENTLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 09N90W...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON. ONLY EXPECT A 15-20 KT MAXIMUM ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10- 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N ON MON...AND ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS ONLY THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW- W-NW WIND SHIFT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON TUE NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAX OF 5 FT IN EXPOSED GULF WATERS N OF 30N. $$ NELSON