000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN 
ASCAT PASS AROUND 0320 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 40-45 KT 
WINDS. WINDS WERE BELIEVED TO PEAK AT 45 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GALE WARNING 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW SUN. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND THE SAME TIME MON MORNING. NE 
SWELL FROM THIS EVENT HAS SPREAD WELL W OF THE GULF...WITH SEAS 
OVER 8 FT EXTENDING TO 116W. THIS SWELL IS COMBINING WITH NW AND 
S SWELL...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT EXPECTED TO LINGER IN S CENTRAL 
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 09N85W 
TO 07N90W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 10N116W TO LOW PRES 
10N122W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES 11N130W 1010 MB TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 
BETWEEN 120 NM AND 330 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW DOMINATES NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. THE 
SURFACE REFLECTION IS A 1019 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 27N130W. A 
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES TO ITS NW. THE 0646 ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED 25 KT NE WINDS IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND SHIP 
PHEO HAS REPORTED 25-30 KT WINDS IN THIS REGION SINCE 0200 UTC 
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE ENERGY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE UPPER LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE 
SURFACE...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE A NEW LOW 
FORMS CLOSER TO THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET AND 
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ITS E. THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY 
STRETCHES FROM 26N121W TO 11N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
LIES WITHIN 420 NM E OF THIS TROUGH FROM 16N TO 24N. THIS TROUGH 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MON 
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NEW LOW FORMING 
ALONG THIS TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT STRONG 
WINDS SUN INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MON MORNING.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE 
S WEAKENS. STRONG NE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A CONCERN IN THE 
IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
DAY TODAY WITH ONE LAST GASP OF A STRONG NE BREEZE OUT TO 89W 
EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SUN MORNING BEFORE 
WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FRESH BREEZE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N TONIGHT 
THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF.
 
$$
SCHAUER