000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301016
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE N WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN 45 NM
OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT.  STRONG 
N-NE WINDS EDGE GALE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W
TO 11N101W WITH SEAS TO 15 KT.  FURTHER S OF WIND REGION LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL BRING 8 FT SEAS ACROSS
E PAC WATERS S OF 15N FROM 95-105W.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY AS FORCING
ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS LESSENS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER GULF OF MEXICO.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N88W THEN ITCZ TO 05N99W
TO 11N128W.  ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 10N132W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N
AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 91W TO 110W AND WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120
NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 128W.  

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N124W TO 10N133W.  VERY
DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF TROUGH RESTRICT STRATIFIED CLOUDS TO 
LOW LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.  DOWNSTREAM...
JET CORE 60 KT ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY ITCZ
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE UNTO NW BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW
MEXICO.  REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAINS UNDER MID
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 10N96W.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1015 MB AT 28N129W EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH...DEFINED DECAYS ALONG
32N119W TO 26N126W.  STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITHIN 240
NM NW OF LOW PRES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.  HIGH PRES BUILDS WITH 
AREA OF STRONG NE BREEZE SPREADING S TO ALONG 20N W OF 130W.
SECOND LOW PRES 1011 MB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY NEAR
21N124W ALONG SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.  LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW TO 21N130W MON THEN STALL AND WEAKEN TO
OPEN TROUGH WED.        

GAP WINDS...NE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS GULF OF FONSECA TO A
MODERATE NE BREEZE...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.  NE FLOW EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE SUN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRESENT LIGHT TO GENTLE NW BREEZE INCREASES
A MODERATE BREEZE TONIGHT AND TO A FRESH BREEZE BY SAT...THEN 
BECOME STRONG FROM 25NTO 28N SAT NIGHT.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES