000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI NOV 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT GALE FORCE OF 30-40 KT WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W...WITH SEAS OF 12-18 FT WITHIN THIS GALE AREA. THE GALE AREA IS SURROUNDED BY N-NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 11N101W...WITH SEAS OF 10-15 KT. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS ROUGHLY TO THE S OF 15N BETWEEN 93-102W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GALE CONDITIONS ENDING JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN. BY THEN LARGE NW SWELLS WILL HAVE PROPAGATED SE ACROSS THE SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND MIX WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL AND THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...BASICALLY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 04-13N BETWEEN 95-110W. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE TO MAX AROUND 25 KT AROUND SUNRISE MON...THE WITH THE WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING TO LIGHT TUE THROUGH LATE THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W...THEN SW TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 06N102W THEN WNW TO 11N130W...THE SW BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND ALONG BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N84W TO 06N96W TO 10N113W TO 08N120W TO 11N127W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 05N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N127W TO 20N120W WHERE OCCASIONAL STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ AT 10N127W TO 20N121W. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...DISCUSSION... AN OCCLUDED 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT 30N128W. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH...DEFINED BY 120 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW- MID CLOUDS...IS DECAYING ALONG 32N117W TO 27N120W TO 17N140W. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF THE LOW...FROM 29-32N BETWEEN 130-135W...WITH SEAS 9-12 FT. POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N140W. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW WITH THE AREA OF NE 20- 25 KT SPREADING S TO ALONG 24N TO W OF 129W. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SAT NEAR 20N123W ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-10 FT WITHIN 540 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW ON SUN. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW TO NEAR 22N131W ON MON...THEN STALL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY WED. GAP WINDS...THE NE FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. CURRENTLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 08N92W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. THE NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AFTERNOON...THEN SURGE TO 20-25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. ONLY EXPECT A 15-20 KT MAXIMUM ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL EXTEND SW TO NEAR 08N92W...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT...AND TO 15-20 KT ON SAT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SUN. THE NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N ON MON...AND ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N ON MON NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ONLY THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AROUND SUNRISE ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT IN EXPOSED GULF WATERS N OF 30N. $$ NELSON