000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI NOV 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT STRONG GALE FORCE OF 30-45 KT WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N96W...WITH SEAS OF 13-21 FT WITHIN THE GALE AREA. THE GALE AREA IS SURROUNDED BY N-NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N97W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 13N97W TO 09N103W...WITH SEAS OF 11-15 KT. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS FROM 05-14N BETWEEN 93- 106W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE AREA OF GALE WINDS ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N96W AT MIDDAY ON SAT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 9-16 FT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN AS THE AREA OF SEAS 8-11 FT SHRINKS FROM 05-13N BETWEEN 96W-110W. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN ACROSS W PANAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF COSTA RICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 07N91W...WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 10N124W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 09N85W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 07N88W TO 07N92W TO 08N96W TO 07N105W...FROM 10N112W TO 07N119W...AND FROM 11N125W TO 08N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N115W TO 17N117W TO 13N123W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ AT 08N123W TO 16N121W. ...DISCUSSION... AN OCCLUDED 1003 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT 33N126W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N118W TO 26N120W TO 20N140W. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...LARGE NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16 FT CONTINUE TO THE N OF 23N W OF THE FRONT. THE NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED SE INTO THE TROPICS S OF 23N W OF 130W WHERE THEY ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8- 13 FT. THESE NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT...WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BRIEFLY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH SEAS 4-6 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN BAJA PENINSULA BY SAT...FURTHER SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N127W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 9-11 FT AND SHIFT S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 130-135W ON FRI. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N126W TO 22N121W EARLY SAT. BY THEN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 9-13 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE N OF 26N BETWEEN 129-136W. THESE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF 125W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAP WINDS...CURRENTLY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI. THEREAFTER THE NE FLOW WILL SURGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT...EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL EXTEND SW TO NEAR 08N92W MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. $$ NELSON