000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU NOV 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW STORM FORCE...BUT CONTINUE AT A STRONG GALE FORCE OF 30-45 KT WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N96W...WITH SEAS OF 14-23 FT WITHIN THE GALE AREA. THE GALE AREA IS SURROUNDED BY N-NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N97W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 13N97W TO 09N103W...WITH SEAS OF 11- 15 KT. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS FROM 05-14N BETWEEN 93-106W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE AREA OF GALE WINDS ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13.5N96W AT MIDDAY ON SAT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 9-16 FT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN AS THE AREA OF SEAS 8-11 FT SHRINKS FROM 05-13N BETWEEN 96W-110W. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN ACROSS W PANAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF COSTA RICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 09N90W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N94W WHERE IT CONTINUES W TO 08N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 11N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF THE TROUGH TO 09N128W TO 10N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF LINES FROM 07.5N87W TO 08N103W...AND FROM 08N112W TO 09N119W...AND FROM 12N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N114W TO 14N122W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE ITCZ AT 09N123W TO 17N121W. ...DISCUSSION... AN OCCLUDED SURFACE 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 33N126W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N120W TO 25N122W TO 20N140W. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...LARGE NW SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 12-17 FT CONTINUE TO THE N OF 23N W OF THE FRONT. THE NW SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED SE INTO THE TROPICS S OF 23N W OF 130W WHERE THEY ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8- 13 FT. THESE NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT...WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BRIEFLY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH SEAS 4-6 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN BAJA PENINSULA BY SAT...FURTHER SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON FRI AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N127W. THE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 9-11 FT AND SHIFT S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 28-32N BETWEEN 130-135W ON FRI. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N126W TO 23N121W ON SAT. BY THEN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 9-13 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE N OF 26N BETWEEN 129-136W. THESE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF 125W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GAP WINDS...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. THEREAFTER THE NE FLOW WILL SURGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT...EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL EXTEND SW TO NEAR 08N92W MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT. $$ NELSON