000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45-55 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W AND ARE SURROUNDED BY GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 12N97W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SOON MAX AT ABOUT 24 FT IN THE AREA OF STORM CONDITIONS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING... THEREFORE THE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND THE CORRESPONDING GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. STRONG GALE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT WITH PULSES TO MINIMAL GALE CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL... RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05-14N BETWEEN 93-107W BY LATE THU. THE AREA OF NE-E SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 93W- 115W BY LATE FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N99W TO 09N116W...THEN TURNS SW TO 08N121W TO 08N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 10N129W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N131W AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 09N120W TO 10N127W AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N107W TO 14.5N113W TO 16N113W TO 14.5N118W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N126W TO 24N140W IS PRECEDED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-12 FT TO THE N OF 27N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW IS ALSO AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM W OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELLS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 11-18 FT N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS OF 8-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS MOMENTUM ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF 9-16 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT ON THU. THESE NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT...WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BRIEFLY ON FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS 4-7 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON SAT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SWING SE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 29N127W ON FRI WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE LOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND SPREADING S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N W OF 130W ON FRI NIGHT....THEN SPREADING S TO AS FAR S AS 25N ON SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N131W TO 14N126W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 7-9 FT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH TO 140W. THIS TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY ON THU...BUT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W MIXING WITH 15-20 KT NE TRADES AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE TRADES MAINTAINING SEAS OF 5-8 FT. GAP WINDS...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH BOTH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA EVENT WILL BE BRIEF...AND ONLY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU...THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AT 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE LATE EACH NIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT. THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL FURTHER MIX WITH THE N SWELL ALONG 93W FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. $$ NELSON