000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A COLD AIRMASS SURGING IN ACROSS THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE N OF THE CHIVELA PASS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...PERSISTING 
UNTIL 00 UTC THU WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH BACK TO GALE FORCE. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE UNTIL 
LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUCH WINDS 
WILL RESULT IN AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NE SWELL WHICH WILL MANAGE 
TO PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 22 FT 
NEAR 13.5N96W BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N100W TO     
09N126W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N134W TO 06N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ IS PRESENT...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN   
AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 15N111W TO 17N117W TO 14N119W TO 
15N111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED THE DISCUSSION WATERS EXTENDING FROM 
GALE FORCE 998 MB LOW PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 39.5N135W 
THROUGH 32N133W TO 28N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 
10-14 FT NW SWELLS ARE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FRESH 
TO STRONG SW WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N125W TO 28N126W TO 
23N140W BY 24 HOURS WHILE THE NW SWELL BUILDS TO UP TO 17 FT 
ALONG AND N OF 30N...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 
IT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 25N134W TO 20N132W BY 48 HOURS. SEAS 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE REACHING 
ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 15N125W TO 08N140W BY THIS 
TIME FRI.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 16N121W TO 
08N132W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE N OF 09N WITHIN 150 NM W 
OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 9-10 FT SEAS...WHILE AN AREA OF MIXED 
NE AND SE SWELL OF 8-9 FT IS W-SW OF THE TROUGH  WITHIN AN AREA 
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N121W TO 15N140W TO 06N140W TO 08N132W 
TO 16N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH JUST BEYOND 
24 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH 
LEVELS AS THE FEATURE APPROACHES 140W.

GAP WINDS...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH 
BOTH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY 24 HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA EVENT WILL BE BRIEF...AND ONLY 
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU...THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE AT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUNRISE ON 
SUN...PEAKING AT 30 KT THU NIGHT. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL 
MIX WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 11 FT. 
THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL FURTHER MIX WITH THE N SWELL ALONG 
93W FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. 
 
$$
LEWITSKY