000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED NOV 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SURGING AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN A FEW 
HOURS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE MORNING ON WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM
OF 22 FT NEAR 13.5N96W LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY SURGES
TO GALE FORCE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. THE 
RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE 
WATERS FROM 05-15N BETWEEN 93-105W ON THU...AND FROM 03-15N 
BETWEEN 93-115W ON SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA...THEN 
WIGGLES W THROUGH 07N96W TO 09N110W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS W TO 09N120W THEN 
NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 12N126W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W 
OF THE TROUGH AT 09N132W AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 07.5N82W...IN A SINGLE CLUSTER
WITHIN 75 NM OF 15.5N118W...AND 30 NM OF LINES FROM 14.5N124W TO
11N129W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 08N137W TO 07.5N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85-118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-11 FT TO THE
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 29N140W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND 
FROM 30N126W TO 24N135W ON WED AFTERNOON. BY THEN SW WINDS
AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 8-12 FT ARE FORECAST N OF 27N 
WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT...AND W-NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 11-19 
FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM 30N125W TO 22N128W ON THU WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF 9-16 
FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT ON THU. THESE NW SWELLS WITH 
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT...WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS 5-
8 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN 
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SAT.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N132W TO
14N122W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 7-9 FT ARE NOTED W OF THE 
TROUGH TO 140W THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND/SEAS 
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD FROM 08N135W TO 15N125W ON 
WED...AND SHIFT W OF AREA LATE THU.

GAP WINDS...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH 
BOTH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON WED NIGHT. 
ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA EVENT WILL BE BRIEF...AND ONLY 
PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU...THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
SURGE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUNRISE 
ON SUN. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL 
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT. THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL 
FURTHER MIX WITH THE N SWELL ALONG 93W FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. 
 
$$
NELSON