000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE NOV 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SURGE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN STEADILY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... FURTHER INCREASING TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AROUND SUNRISE ON WED AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 22 FT NEAR 13.5N96W ON WED AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SURGES TO GALE FORCE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS LARGER THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05-15N BETWEEN 93- 105W ON THU...AND FROM 03-15N BETWEEN 93115W ON SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 08N78W TO ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA...THEN EXTENDS NW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA TO 10N87W... THEN TURNS SW TO 07N92W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N116W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 12N126W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AT 09N131W AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...TO THE N OF 04N BETWEEN 79-84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 10N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 06N131W TO 14N120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 137-140W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-11 FT TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N137W TO 29N140W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W ON WED AFTERNOON. BY THEN SW WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 8-11 FT ARE FORECAST N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT...AND W-NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 11-19 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM 30N1262W TO 23N129W ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF 8-18 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT ON THU. THESE NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT...WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS 5- 8 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SAT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N131W TO 14N120W. FRESH NE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WIND/SEAS CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD FROM 08N135W TO 15N125W ON WED...AND FROM 07N140W TO 15N130W ON THU. GAP WINDS...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH BOTH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA EVENT WILL BE BRIEF...AND ONLY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU...THE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT. THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL FURTHER MIX WITH THE N SWELL ALONG 93W FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. $$ NELSON