000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE NOV 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG HIGH PRES PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF WITH CREATE AN 
EXTREMELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TONIGHT...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
VERY SUDDENLY TO GREATER THAN 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC TONIGHT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REACH STORM FORCE...NEAR 50 KT...BETWEEN 1200 AND 0000 UTC WED. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AN UNUSUALLY LONG 
DURATION IN THIS PARTICULAR HIGH WIND EVENT...LASTING THROUGH 
LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 
20-22 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS. LONG DURATION 
OF WINDS GREATER THAN 25-30 KT WILL ALSO GENERATE AN IMPRESSIVE 
PLUME OF N-NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FAR TO THE W-SW...LIKELY 
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N97W TO 08N105W TO 
08N117W...THEN DISCONTINUOUS ITCZ FROM 08N117W TO 09N125W WHICH 
RESUMES FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N118W TO 07N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRES W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CENTERED NEAR 33N124W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 
31N. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH NW WINDS ALL ALONG THE AXIS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... 
ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FT S OF 27N. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
CONTINUE TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISHING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

INTENSE OCCLUDING LOW PRES SYSTEM NW OF AREA CENTERED NEAR 40N 
145W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW FROM TRIPLE POINT AT 41N139W TO 
29N147W. THE LOW WILL TRACK E THEN ESE TOWARD CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
THU NIGHT...DRAGGING THE COLD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W 
LATE TONIGHT...FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W WED AND THEN WEAKEN FROM 
30N122W TO 22N132W EARLY THU. LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOW PRES SYSTEM AND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT. MAX SEAS TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG 30N 
WED MORNING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BETWEEN 125W AND 140W AS THE 
LOW SHIFTS E. CYCLONIC WINDS GREATER THAN 25 KT WILL BE CONFINED 
TO MAINLY N OF 29N WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO 
15N121W. FRESH NE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF 
THE TROUGH DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE TROUGH AND SEAS ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE 
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 08N135W TO 13N127W WED...AND FROM 
07N140W TO 12N132W THU. 

THE HIGH PRES MOVING THROUGH THE W GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WINDS TO SPILL THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF FONSECA 
AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 
8-9 FT THU THROUGH SAT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE DURING LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
 
$$
MUNDELL