000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261535 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG HIGH PRES PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF WITH CREATE AN EXTREMELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE VERY SUDDENLY TO GREATER THAN 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC TONIGHT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE...NEAR 50 KT...BETWEEN 1200 AND 0000 UTC WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION IN THIS PARTICULAR HIGH WIND EVENT...LASTING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 20-22 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS. LONG DURATION OF WINDS GREATER THAN 25-30 KT WILL ALSO GENERATE AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF N-NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE FAR TO THE W-SW...LIKELY REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N97W TO 08N105W TO 08N117W...THEN DISCONTINOUS ITCZ FROM 08N117W TO 09N125W WHICH RESUMES FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N118W TO 07N136W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRES W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CENTERED NEAR 33N124W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 31N. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS ALL ALONG THE AXIS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FT S OF 27N. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DIMINISHING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. INTENSE OCCLUDING LOW PRES SYSTEM NW OF AREA CENTERED NEAR 40N 145W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SW FROM TRIPLE POINT AT 41N139W TO 29N147W. THE LOW WILL TRACK E THEN ESE TOWARD CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU NIGHT...DRAGGING THE COLD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ALSO MANAGE TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO SPILL THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO COMMENCING BY 48 HOURS...THEN PULSING EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT W OF THE FRONT WITH NEARBY WINDS ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED W-SW OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N124W WITH THE RIDGING REACHING SE THROUGH 29N120W TO NEAR 14N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 22N TO 29N...WITH SIMILAR WINDS AROUND CABO CORRIENTES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A DEEPENING STORM FORCE 984 MB LOW PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N147W EXTENDING TO N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH 30N140W THROUGH TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18 HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WATERS BY 24 HOURS ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND 8-12 FT NW SWELL BEHIND IT...BUILDING TO UP TO 10- 16 FT BY 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS AS A REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 27N136W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH WHILE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHES ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 18N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 14N123W TO 07N129W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING AND THE TROUGH ITSELF. A SEPARATE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-9 FT SEAS IS IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 137W. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COMBINED WITH SE SWELL IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS TO THE S OF 03N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BY 24 HOURS...THEN TRADES WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG BY 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES 140W. $$ LEWITSKY