000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260942 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 18 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N...THEN WILL INCREASE TO HIGH END GALE FORCE BY 24 HOURS...THEN WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY 30 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED...DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AROUND 22 FT DURING THE TIME OF STORM FORCE WINDS. LOOKING BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GIVEN SUCH A LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS...AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW...LIKELY REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N96W TO 09N108W TO 08N117W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N117W TO 09N124W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 10N126W TO 06N138W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ALSO MANAGE TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS TO SPILL THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO COMMENCING BY 48 HOURS...THEN PULSING EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 5-7 FT W OF THE FRONT WITH NEARBY WINDS ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED W-SW OF POINT CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N124W WITH THE RIDGING REACHING SE THROUGH 29N120W TO NEAR 14N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 22N TO 29N...WITH SIMILAR WINDS AROUND CABO CORRIENTES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A DEEPENING STORM FORCE 984 MB LOW PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N147W EXTENDING TO N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY APPROACH 30N140W THROUGH TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18 HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WATERS BY 24 HOURS ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS AND 8-12 FT NW SWELL BEHIND IT...BUILDING TO UP TO 10- 16 FT BY 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS AS A REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 27N136W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH WHILE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHES ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 18N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 14N123W TO 07N129W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING AND THE TROUGH ITSELF. A SEPARATE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-9 FT SEAS IS IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 137W. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COMBINED WITH SE SWELL IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS TO THE S OF 03N W OF 130W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BY 24 HOURS...THEN TRADES WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG BY 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES 140W. $$ LEWITSKY