000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS EXPIRED HOWEVER 
NLY WINDS 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
TONIGHT THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THEN 8 FT 
TUE. THE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG...WITH A 
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HIGH END GALE EVENT STARTING BY 42 HOURS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE TOPS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT 45 KT ALTHOUGH A 
LOW END STORM FORCE WIND EVENT BEYOND 48 HOURS CANNOT BE RULED 
OUT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 21 FT ON WED. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND 
WITH SUCH A PROLONGED EVENT A LARGE PLUME OF NE-E SWELL 
GENERATED BY THE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE W-SW...LIKELY 
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY NEXT WEEKEND.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 6N95W TO 9N115W. ITCZ 9N115W TO 
10N120W THEN RESUMES FROM 9N125W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 114W-124W AND WITHIN 
70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 137W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N137W TO 23N140W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
32N135W TO 23N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. W OF THE FRONT LARGE NLY SWELLS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 15N122W. A 75-100 KT 
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 29N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW 
PORTION TUE NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 32N129N TO 26N140W. NW WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-15 FT W OF 
THE FRONT.

$$
DGS