000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 12 HOURS...WITH RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG...WITH A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT HIGH END GALE EVENT COMMENCING BY 48 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE TOPS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT 45 KT ALTHOUGH A LOW END STORM FORCE WIND EVENT BEYOND 48 HOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 21 FT ON WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND WITH SUCH A PROLONGED EVENT A LARGE PLUME OF NE-E SWELL GENERATED BY THE WINDS WILL PROPAGATE TO THE W-SW...LIKELY REACHING ALL THE WAY TO 120W BY NEXT WEEKEND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 06N95W TO 12N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO 10N132W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N138W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 80W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 10N136W TO 06N130W TO 10N129W TO 10N136W ...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED SW OF THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 32N123W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SW TO 20N136W AND ALSO SE TO 23N108W. THIS HIGH AND RIDGING IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND SURFACE TROUGHING EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH FROM 18N116W TO 10N123W WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS SETTING UP WITHIN 120-150 NM W OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING BY 48 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 15N133W TO 09N136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 137W GRADUALLY EXPANDING TO THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 135W BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N137W TO 24N140W. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH 8-10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL CURRENTLY W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT WHILE DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE NW SWELL SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW PORTION TUE...BREACHING 30N140W TUE EVENING/NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N...WHILE LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 12 FT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW CORNER BY 48 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WHICH WILL REMAIN N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. LOOKING BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE- S THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 16-18 FT EXPECTED ALONG 30N BY LATE WED...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 10N140W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS OVER NW MEXICO JUST INLAND OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MENTIONED ABOVE IS INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 29N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF BY 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY TUE. $$ LEWITSKY