000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG NW TO N 
WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND SPILL THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...YIELDING A NARROW PLUME OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W TO 15N95W TO 13N96W...AND 
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 
SUNRISE MON MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON 
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON 
AROUND 15 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 10N81W TO 07N99W TO 
12.5N117W...WHERE IT TERMINATES BEHIND A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH 
ALONG 121W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 07.5N124W TO 09N134W TO 
08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N 
OF 06N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN W OF 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N125W THIS AFTERNOON HAS 
COLLAPSED AND RELOCATED AS A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N123W...WITH 
WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 21N108W AND SW TO 24N135W. THIS WEAK 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE 
REORGANIZING. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS SRN 
CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION 
OF THE U.S....LEAVING A LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 17N120W. A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS JUST S AND SE OF 
THE S PORTION OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG 120W-121W...AND 
IS ENHANCING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODEST 
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. FRESH TO 
STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS N OF 28N 
W OF 138W. THIS VERY WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E TO 135W 
BY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 
TUE...WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BUT REMNANT NW SWELL TO 8 FT 
EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT MON.

THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN THE MOST DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 2 
DAYS. IT WILL MOVE SLOW WESTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 09N122W TO 
16N113W MON MORNING AND FROM 08N127W TO 14N118W TUE MORNING. 
FRESH NE WINDS NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 
7-9 FT TUE AS IT SHIFTS WEST AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF 7-8 FT 
SEAS IS INDICATED N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 135W ON TUE.

LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
EARLY WED...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10-12 FT N OF 28N W OF 
130W ON WED THEN SEAS BUILDING TO 11-15 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 135W AS THE AREA OF LARGE WAVES SPREADS E-SE ON THU.

...GAP WINDS...
ANOTHER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
LATE TUE NIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT. GLOBAL MODEL 
FORECASTS INDICATE THERE WILL BE STRONG GALE CONDITIONS 
WED...REACHING 45 TO 50 KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE THE LONG 
DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED PERIOD 
OF GALE CONDITIONS HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 
EARLY WED THROUGH LATE SAT. THE HIGH PRES PUSHING FAR SOUTH INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL 
ALSO INDUCE PULSING GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND 
PAPAGAYO EARLY THU THROUGH SUN.

$$
STRIPLING