000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG NW TO N 
WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND SPILL THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...YIELDING A NARROW PLUME OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W TO 15N95W TO 13N96.5W...AND 
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 
SUNRISE MON MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON 
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE PEAKED THIS AFTERNOON 
AROUND 15 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 08N81W TO 10N85W TO 
07.5N92W TO 10N112W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 11.5N118W TO 08N124W TO 09N134W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND  134W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 
114W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N125W HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THAT 
GENERAL AREA SW TO NEAR 22N138W THROUGH MON. DEEP LAYERED UPPER  
CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED  NE 
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S....LEAVING A LINGERING 
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 13N123W. A 
BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
PREVAILS JUST E OF THE S HALF OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND IS 
TRIGGERING ACTIVE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE FROM FROM 15N TO 
20N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF A 
FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS N OF 
27N W OF 138W. THIS VERY WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W 
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BUT REMNANT NW SWELL TO 8 FT 
EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT MON.

THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN THE MOST DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 2 
DAYS. IT WILL MOVE SLOW WESTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 09N122W TO 
16N113W MON MORNING AND FROM 08N127W TO 14N118W TUE MORNING. 
FRESH NE WINDS NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 
7-9 FT TUE AS IT SHIFTS WEST AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF 7-8 FT 
SEAS IS INDICATED N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 135W ON TUE.

LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
EARLY WED...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10-12 FT N OF 28N W OF 
130W ON WED THEN SEAS BUILDING TO 11-15 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 135W AS THE AREA OF LARGE WAVES SPREADS E-SE ON THU.

...GAP WINDS...
ANOTHER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
LATE TUE NIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS 
INDICATE THERE WILL BE STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WED...REACHING 45 
TO 50 KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF 
THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE THE LONG DURATION OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS 
HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY WED THROUGH 
SAT. THE HIGH PRES PUSHING FAR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALSO INDUCE GAP WIND 
EVENTS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO THU THROUGH SAT.

$$
STRIPLING