000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N96W. STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING 
FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE 
MON...THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WAVE 
HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 14-15 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N87W TO 07N97W TO 
10N110W...THEN ITCZ TO 10N117W TO 07N121W TO 09N131W TO 08N140W. 
A TROUGH LINE EXTENDS NE FROM THE ITCZ FROM 09N119W TO 16N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N124W EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER 
TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG W COAST OF MEXICO WEAKENING AS IT 
MOVES INLAND. ACTIVE CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SURFACE TROUGH NE 
OF CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 09N119W TO 16N110W. FRESH TO STRONG S 
WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT NE OF THE AREA FROM 38N142W TO 28N145W IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS N OF 27N W OF 138W. VERY WEAK 
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W TONIGHT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BUT 
REMNANT NW SWELL TO 8 FT EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT MON.

GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS MOST DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE 
NEXT 2 DAYS. IT WILL MOVE SLOW WESTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 09N122W 
TO 16N113W MON MORNING AND FROM 08N127W TO 14N118W TUE MORNING. 
FRESH NE WINDS NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 
7-8 FT TUE AS IT SHIFTS WEST AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF 7-8 FT 
SEAS IS INDICATED N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 135W ON TUE.

LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
EARLY WED...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10-12 FT N OF 28N W OF 
130W ON WED THEN SEAS BUILDING TO 11-15 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 135W AS THE AREA OF LARGE WAVES SPREADS E-SE ON THU.

...GAP WINDS...

ANOTHER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
LATE TUE NIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS 
INDICATE THERE WILL BE STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WED...REACHING 45 
TO 50 KT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS 
HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE THE LONG DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS... 
A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE CONDITIONS HOWLING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY WED THROUGH SAT. THE 
HIGH PRES PUSHING FAR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALSO INDUCE GAP WIND EVENTS IN 
THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO THU THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL