000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED BY TO THE E OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE 
CHIVELA PASS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
FUNNELING FROM THE SW GULF THROUGH THE PASS AND DOWNWIND ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO GALE FORCE...WITH RESULTANT SEAS UP 
TO 13 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 
SUNRISE MON...THEN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 00Z 
TUE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF 14-15 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N94W TO 
12N110W TO 08N121W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N121W TO 10N130W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 83W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND FAR NW MEXICO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT 
TROUGH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REMNANT SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW 
TO N SWELL LINGER WELL SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N143W TO 28N146W. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE LOW WILL 
REMAIN N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WHILE FRESH TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE 
BREACHED THE FAR NW CORNER W OF A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 16N140W. 
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE IN THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS BY LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 17N113W TO 12N114W TO 08N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 17N114W TO 
11N120W TO 07N117W TO 11N109W TO 17N110W TO 17N114W. THIS TROUGH 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGHING AND BUILDING HIGH PRES 
TO THE N WILL CREATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 
ASSOCIATED 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W BY 
THIS TIME TOMORROW...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
...AS WELL AS JUST INLAND ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST... 
WITH PINCHED RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 
SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SET UP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 
30N BY MON NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT 
WILL LIKELY COMMENCE LATE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. 
GLOBAL MODEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE 
WED MORNING AND REACH STRONG GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY WED...AND 
COULD REACH 45-50 KT LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT 
ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE THE LONG DURATION OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE 
CONDITIONS HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY 
WED THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY