000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING S ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE 
THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS IN S CENTRAL MEXICO THIS EVENING AND 
INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALES 
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT SUN MORNING  
WITH SEAS REACHING 10-15 FT DOWNSTREAM...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING. NLY WINDS WILL THEN 
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE DAY MON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO 10N85W TO 
08.5N101W TO 11N110W TO 07.5N117W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ 
ON TO 07.5N122W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 120 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 106W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 33.5N116W THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE... 
IS REFLECTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS CENTERED 
NEAR 31.5N119.5W AND INLAND NEAR 32.5N111.5W. A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT STRETCHES SW FROM THE INLAND LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THEN THROUGH 20N120W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR 
LINE WEST SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 18N130W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS 
WILL N OF THE FRONT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD GENERATED AN AREA OF 
LARGE N SWELL THAT HAS PROPAGATED S INTO THE LOCAL WATERS E OF 
130W. SEAS HAVE GRADUALLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE PAST 
24 HOURS...AND WERE 8-9 FT FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W 
THIS EVENING...AND WILL DROP BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA BY SUN 
MORNING. 

A COLD FRONT W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR 
33N144W TO JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAIIAN WILL APPROACH 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WILL 
WEAKEN INTO A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH BY MON AND FAIL TO MAKE MUCH 
PROGRESS E OF 140W...DUE TO LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FRESH S 
TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS N OF 28N W 
OF 137W AT TIMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND 
EVENT WILL LIKELY COMMENCE LATE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH 
SAT. GLOBAL MODEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL 
INCREASE WED MORNING AND REACH STRONG GALE FORCE DURING THE 
DAY...AND COULD REACH 45-50 KT LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE LONG DURATION 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE 
CONDITIONS HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY 
WED THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF 30N 
INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

$$
STRIPLING