000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT NOV 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO S CENTRAL MEXICO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. N WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE COMMENCED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GALES THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KT SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS REACHING 10-15 FT DOWNSTREAM. GALES THERE ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MON MORNING WITH NLY WIND FLOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE DAY MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 07N73W TO 10N85W TO 07N96W TO 11N108W TO 08N117W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ ON TO 08N117W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 18 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 126W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33.5N116W REFLECTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS CENTERED NEAR 31N119W AND INLAND NEAR 31.5N113WW. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES SW FROM THE LOW NEAR 31.5N113W THROUGH 20N120W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE WEST SOUTHWARD TO 18N130W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS BEHIND FRONT THE PREVIOUS 24-48 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED AN AREA OF N SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT N OF 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 136W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND WITHOUT FURTHER SUPPORT SEA HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... DROPPING BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. A COLD FRONT W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR 32N146W TO JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAIIAN WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT WILL WEAKEN INTO A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH BY MON AND FAIL TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY E OF 140W...DUE TO LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FRESH S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS N OF 28N W OF 138W AT TIMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY COMMENCE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. EARLY GFS MODEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL REACH STRONG GALE FORCE WED...BUT REMAIN BELOW STORM FORCE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT AS DEPICTED IN GFS MODEL WILL BE LONG DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE CONDITIONS HOWLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY WED THROUGH SAT MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF 30N INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. $$ STRIPLING