000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231555 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A GAP WIND EVENT DOWNSTREAM INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 13 FT SUN MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 07N96W TO 11N108W TO 08N117W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N117W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 13N90W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33.5N116W REFLECTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N114W AND 31N119W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES SW FROM THE LOW NEAR 33.5N114W TO 20N120W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO 18N130W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS BEHIND FRONT THE PREVIOUS 24-48 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED AN AREA OF N SWELL WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 8-10 FT N OF 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W. WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND WITHOUT FURTHER SUPPORT SEA HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT... DROPPING BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. A COLD FRONT W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STRETCHING FROM A LOW NEAR 35N145W TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT WILL WEAKEN INTO A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH BY MON AND FAIL TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY E OF 140W LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FRESH S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS N OF 28N W OF 138W AT TIMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HIGH WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY COMMENCE TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. EARLY GFS MODEL WIND FORECASTS INDICATE IT WILL REACH STRONG GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WED...BUT REMAIN BELOW STORM FORCE. MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS HIGH WIND EVENT AS DEPICTED IN GFS MODEL WILL BE LONG DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS...A VIRTUALLY UNINTERRUPTED STRETCH OF GALE CONDITIONS HOWLING NEAR THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY WED THROUGH SAT MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF 30N INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. $$ MUNDELL