000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ON FRI AND WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE THE 
NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
REACH 20-25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT...THEN REACHING GALE 
FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
AROUND 12 FT BY 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N94W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 09N94W TO 08N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR 17N124W WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 13N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W IS 
BEING NUDGED TO THE E BY UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 32N137W 
THROUGH 20N140W TO W OF THE AREA NEAR 08N150W WHERE A PARENT 
ANTICYCLONE IS PRESENT. THE TUTT LOW IS WEAKLY CONNECTED TO A 
LINGERING MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E-NE THROUGH 21N110W TO 
MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 26N106W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS 
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ANCHORED 
ON AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER CALIFORNIA NE OF POINT CONCEPTION... 
WITH A 85-105 KT JETSTREAK WORKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH ALONG 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA HAS COLLAPSED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
1008 MB LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
NEAR 31N115W THROUGH 25N125W TO 28N139W. FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING N OF THE FRONTAL 
TROUGH N OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 28N126W TO 30N133W. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS BY 24 HOURS 
WHILE RESIDUAL MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE AREA 
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N136W TO 23N129W TO 24N120W 
TO 28N118W TO 30N122W TO 30N135W. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY SAT EVENING.
 
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS COLLAPSED...A BROAD AND 
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE S OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 28N142W 
TO 23N125W TO 25N112W. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 8-9 FT SEAS W OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 
10N136W TO 06N140W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 
SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WELL W OF THE AREA TO THE N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NW CORNER REACHING 
FROM 32N142W TO 24N145W BY 48 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY 
WINDS AND 8-9 FT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME 
NW CORNER.

$$
LEWITSKY