000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
 MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 
08N95W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON TO 09N101W 
TO 06N117W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING TUTT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 16N129W...AND BEING NUDGED 
E-SE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
09N145W...WHILE REMAINING WEAKLY CONNECTED TO LINGERING MIDDLE 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E-NE TO N PORTION OF BROAD TROUGH FROM 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 10N103W. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS NW OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WITH BROAD EQUATORIAL 
RIDGE SE OF TUTT LOW W OF 100W. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS 
SWEEPING ACROSS NE PORTIONS...ANCHORED ON AN UPPER CYCLONE 
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH AN 85-100 KT JETSTREAK WORKING 
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA HAS COLLAPSED WITH THE APPROACH OF TWO FRONTAL TROUGHS 
SINKING S INTO NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...THE FIRST FROM 
27N137W TO WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS FAR N BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE 
SECOND BOUNDARY JUST TO THE N AND ENTERING N PORTIONS ALONG 28N. 
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING N OF THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL 
PUSH IT S TO NEAR 26N BY SAT AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING 
NORTHERLY SWELL RAISING SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT BY SAT. 
 
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER HAS COLLAPSED...A BROAD AND 
WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...FROM THE NW 
CORNER TO NEAR 18N109W. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO SUPPORT NELY WINDS AROUND 20 
KT WITH 9 FT ELY SWELLS 10N TO THE ITCZ AND W OF 134W. WINDS 
WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY 
FRI.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ON FRI AND WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND INDUCE NLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE THE 
NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BY EARLY SAT 
MORNING...AND THEN REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 

$$
STRIPLING