000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 7N113W. ITCZ 7N113W TO 6N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                              

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N128W 
WITH TROUGH TO 10N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH AXIS FROM 25N129W TO 21N140W. A 95-105 
KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N130W TO 30N125W TO NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 15N-25N W OF 
100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM 22N105W TO 17N111W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 9N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 122W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
ITCZ TO SUPPORT ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 9 FT ELY SWELLS FROM 6N-
10N W OF 133W. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEA 
LESS THAN 8 FT EARLY FRI.

LARGE NLY SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 125W 
TO 135W EARLY FRI MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD S THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO FRI. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO WITH WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
PRODUCE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BY 
SAT MORNING...AND THEN REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO 
SUN. 

$$
DGS