000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 08N111W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 
07N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              

A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS ANALYZED W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 28N141W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 
24N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N AND W OF 130W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES IS MAINTAINING N 
TO NW WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KT W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. GALE FORCE 
WINDS N OF THE AREA HAVE GENERATED A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS 
TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE N PART OF 
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL PEAK NEAR 11 FT FRI MORNING BEFORE 
STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHWARD. BY LATE FRI SEAS 
IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE WILL BE FOUND N OF 24N BETWEEN 120W AND 
135W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
PRODUCE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BY 
SAT MORNING...AND THEN REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO 
SUN. 

$$
AL