000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W TO 9N95W TO 7N95W TO 6N110W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N115W TO 6N119W 
TO 5N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-87W...WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-104W...AND  WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-100W. 


...DISCUSSION...                                                
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH WAS 
ANALYZED OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA NEAR 27N134W WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N105W. DUE TO THE 
RELATIVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ...AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA 
MADRE OCCIDENTALES... REMAINS WEAK. WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WERE GENERALLY N TO NW AT AROUND 15 KT 
WITH 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. THIS HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND COLLAPSE AS IT SHIFTS 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WELL N 
OF THE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W CONUS WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS 
N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GENERATE LARGE N SWELL THAT WILL 
PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. RESULTANT WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
PRODUCE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS EVENT. WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT 
NIGHT INTO SUN. 

$$
STRIPLING