000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N73W TO 10N88W TO 
07N99W TO 06N115W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON 
TO 05.5N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 85W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL IS GENERALLY ZONAL 
AND PROGRESSIVE N OF 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S. SW THROUGH NW MEXICO...ACROSS SRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24.5N112W TO A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE 
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 22.5N123W TO A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 16N135W...WITH TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 12N144W. 
CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS PRODUCING 
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE 
LOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WAS INDICATED EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON BELOW THE CYCLONE...WHERE THE NE TRADES WERE 
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.  

ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING WAS W THROUGH NW OF THE 
CYCLONE...WHILE A BROAD EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR 
02N123W AND EXTENDING NNE TO 20N AND E TO CENTRAL AMERICA. LIGHT 
FLOW ALOFT WAS ALLOWING CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
85W TO VENTILATE AND PERSIST THERE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE 
N PART OF THE AREA NEAR 28N127W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 19N107W. DUE TO THE RELATIVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE 
ACROSS THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES...REMAINS 
WEAK. WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WERE 
GENERALLY N TO NW AT AROUND 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND NE TO E 
15 TO 20 KT IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE NEAR THE ITCZ.  LITTLE CHANGE 
IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER 
BEYOND THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND WILL 
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA TO 
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BRINGING LARGE N 
SWELL INTO THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. 

$$
STRIPLING